August WTI crude oil (CLQ25) today is up +1.14 (+1.77%), and August RBOB gasoline (RBQ25) is up +0.0128 (+0.62%).

Crude oil and gasoline are moving higher today on a bullish weekly EIA report that showed a larger-than-expected draw in crude oil inventories and a surge in US gasoline demand to a 3-1/2 year high.  Also, today's rally in the S&P 500 to a 4-month high shows confidence in the economic outlook that is positive for energy demand.   Gains in crude oil are limited amid speculation that the US may soon lift sanctions on Iranian crude exports, following President Trump's announcement that the US will hold a meeting with Iran next week.  

Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices.  On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd crude production hike for July after raising output by the same amount for June.  Saudi Arabia has signaled that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq.  OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production.  OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won't be fully restored until September 2026.  OPEC May crude production rose +200,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd.

Gasoline prices have support from the American Automobile Association (AAA) projection that a record 61.6 million people will travel by car this Fourth of July holiday (June 28 to July 6), up +2.2% from last year and a sign of stronger gasoline demand.

Oil prices continue to be undercut by tariff concerns, as President Trump recently stated that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners within one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that followed his 90-day pause.

A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices.  Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -13% w/w to 79.66 million bbl in the week ended June 20.

Today's weekly EIA report is bullish for crude and products.  The EIA reported crude inventories fell -5.84 million bbl, a larger draw than expectations of -1.1 million bbl.  Also, gasoline supplies unexpectedly dropped -2.08 million bbl versus expectations of a +500,000 bbl build as US gasoline demand rose +4.2% w/w to a 3-1/2 year high of 9.688 million bpd.  In addition, EIA distillate stockpiles unexpectedly fell -4.07 million bbl versus expectations of a +1.0 million bbl build.  Finally, crude supplies at Cushing, the delivery point of WTI futures, fell -464,000 bbl.

Today's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of June 20 were -10.9% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -20.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending June 20 was unchanged w/w at 13.435 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending June 20 fell by -1 to a 3-3/4 year low of 438 rigs.  Over the past 2-1/2 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen from the 5-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022.